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Analysis of institutional authors

Cvijanovic, IAuthor

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June 25, 2024
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Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Publicated to: Nature Communications. 15 (1): 1796- - 2024-02-27 15(1), DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z

Authors:

Chen, K; de Schrijver, E; Sivaraj, S; Sera, F; Scovronick, N; Jiang, LW; Roye, D; Lavigne, E; Kysely, J; Urban, A; Schneider, A; Huber, V; Madureira, J; Mistry, MN; Cvijanovic, I; Gasparrini, A; Vicedo-Cabrera, AM; Correa, PM; Ortega, NV
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Affiliations

- Author
Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Econ - Author
CIBER Epidemiol & Salud Publ CIBERESP - Author
Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci - Author
Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Gangarosa Dept Environm Hlth - Author
German Res Ctr Environm Hlth GmbH, Inst Epidemiol, Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen - Author
ISGlobal Barcelona Inst Global Hlth - Author
Lab Invest Integrat & Translac Saude Populac ITR - Author
Ludwig Maximilians Univ Munchen, Fac Med, Chair Epidemiol - Author
Populat Council - Author
Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res - Author
Univ Florence, Dept Stat Comp Sci & Applicat Parenti G - Author
Univ Ottawa, Sch Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, Ottawa - Author
Yale Sch Publ Hlth, Yale Ctr Climate Change & Hlth - Author
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Abstract

Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 degrees C, 2 degrees C, and 3 degrees C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 degrees C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population. This study reveals that population aging intensifies heat- and cold-related deaths, more so than climate change, in 50 countries. At 1.53 degrees C global warming, aging contributes to rising heat-related deaths, offsetting declines in cold related death.
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Keywords

AdultAgeAgedAgingAging populationArticleClimate changeClimate-changeColdCold temperatureDeathEpidemiologyExcess mortalityFemaleFuturologyGeographic namesGeographyGlobal warmingGreenhouse effectGreenhouse gasHeatHistorical periodHot temperatureHumanMortalityMortality ratePopulation projectionPopulation sizePopulation structureProjectionsTemperatureTemperature effectWarming

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Nature Communications due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2024 there are still no calculated indicators, but in 2023, it was in position 10/136, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Multidisciplinary Sciences. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

Independientemente del impacto esperado determinado por el canal de difusión, es importante destacar el impacto real observado de la propia aportación.

Según las diferentes agencias de indexación, el número de citas acumuladas por esta publicación hasta la fecha 2026-04-05:

  • WoS: 86
  • Scopus: 87
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Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2026-04-05:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 120.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 120 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 486.
  • The number of mentions on the social network Facebook: 2 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 45 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions in news outlets: 54 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.
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Leadership analysis of institutional authors

This work has been carried out with international collaboration, specifically with researchers from: Argentina; Australia; Brazil; Canada; Chile; China; Cyprus; Czech Republic; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Iran; Italy; Japan; Jerusalem; Malt; Mexico; Moldova; Netherlands; Norway; Oman; Peru; Portugal; Republic of Korea; Sweden; Switzerland; Taiwan; United Kingdom; United States of America; Uruguay.

There is a significant leadership presence as some of the institution’s authors appear as the first or last signer, detailed as follows: Last Author (Vicedo-Cabrera, AM).

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