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This work was supported by Fundacion SEIMC/GeSIDA. The funders had no role in study design, data collection, data interpretation or writing of the manuscript. JB, JRB, IJ, JC, JP and JRA received funding for research from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2013-2016 and Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Subdireccion General de Redes y Centros de Investigacion Cooperativa, Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades, cofinanced by the European Development Regional Fund "A way to achieve Europe", Operative program Intelligent Growth 2014-2020. Spanish AIDS Research Network (RIS) (RD16/0025/0017 (JB), RD16/0025/0018 (JRA), RD16CIII/0002/0006 (IJ)). Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) (RD16/0016/0001 (JRB), RD16/0016/0005 (JC) and RD16/0016/0009 (JP)).

Analysis of institutional authors

Alguacil Guillén, MarinaAuthor

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March 7, 2021
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Development and validation of a prediction model for 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19: the COVID-19 SEIMC score

Publicated to:Thorax. 76 (9): 920-929 - 2021-09-01 76(9), DOI: 10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-216001

Authors: Berenguer, J; Borobia, AM; Ryan, P; Rodríguez-Baño, J; Bellón, JM; Jarrín, I; Carratalà, J; Pachón, J; Carcas, AJ; Yllescas, M; Arribas, JR

Affiliations

Fdn SEIMC GESIDA, Madrid, Spain - Author
Hosp Gen Univ Gregorio Maranon, Inst Invest Sanitaria Gregorio Maranon IiSGM, Clin Microbiol & Infect Dis, Madrid, Spain - Author
Hosp Gen Univ Gregorio Maranon, Inst Invest Sanitaria Gregorio Maranon IiSGM, Fdn Invest Biomed, Madrid, Spain - Author
Hosp Univ Infanta Leonor, Inst Invest Sanitaria Gregorio Maranon IiSGM, Internal Med Serv, Infect Dis, Madrid, Spain - Author
Hosp Univ La Paz, Inst Invest Hosp Univ La Paz IdiPAZ, Infect Dis Unit, Internal Med Serv, Madrid, Spain - Author
Inst Hlth Carlos III, Natl Ctr Epidemiol, Madrid, Comunidad De Ma, Spain - Author
Univ Autonoma Madrid, Inst Invest Hosp Univ La Paz IdiPAZ, Hosp Univ La Paz, Clin Pharmacol, Madrid, Spain - Author
Univ Barcelona, Hosp Univ Bellvitge, Inst Invest Biomed Bellvitge IDIBELL, Infect Dis, Barcelona, Spain - Author
Univ Seville, Hosp Univ Virgen del Rocio, Inst Biomed Sevilla IBiS, Dept Med,Infect Dis, Seville, Spain - Author
Univ Seville, Hosp Univ Virgen Macarena, Inst Biomed Sevilla IBiS, Infect Dis & Microbiol Unit,Dept Med, Seville, Spain - Author
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Abstract

To develop and validate a prediction model of mortality in patients with COVID-19 attending hospital emergency rooms.Multivariable prognostic prediction model.127 Spanish hospitals.Derivation (DC) and external validation (VC) cohorts were obtained from multicentre and single-centre databases, including 4035 and 2126 patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively.Prognostic variables were identified using multivariable logistic regression.30-day mortality.Patients' characteristics in the DC and VC were median age 70 and 61 years, male sex 61.0% and 47.9%, median time from onset of symptoms to admission 5 and 8 days, and 30-day mortality 26.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Age, low age-adjusted saturation of oxygen, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, estimated glomerular filtration rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation, dyspnoea and sex were the strongest predictors of mortality. Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with a 95% CI for prediction of 30-day mortality of 0.822 (0.806-0.837) in the DC and 0.845 (0.819-0.870) in the VC. A simplified score system ranging from 0 to 30 to predict 30-day mortality was also developed. The risk was considered to be low with 0-2 points (0%-2.1%), moderate with 3-5 (4.7%-6.3%), high with 6-8 (10.6%-19.5%) and very high with 9-30 (27.7%-100%).A simple prediction score, based on readily available clinical and laboratory data, provides a useful tool to predict 30-day mortality probability with a high degree of accuracy among hospitalised patients with COVID-19.© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

Keywords

clinical epidemiologycritical carediagnosis tripodemergency medicinepneumoniarespiratory infectiontoolAdultAge factorsAgedAged, 80 and overClinical epidemiologyCovid-19Critical careDyspneaEmergency medicineFemaleGlomerular filtration rateHospital mortalityHumansIndividual prognosisInpatientsLogistic modelsLymphocyte countMaleMiddle agedNeutrophilsOxygenPneumoniaRespiratory infectionRisk factorsRoc curveSars-cov-2Sex factorsViral infection

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Thorax due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2021, it was in position 9/66, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Respiratory System.

From a relative perspective, and based on the normalized impact indicator calculated from World Citations provided by WoS (ESI, Clarivate), it yields a value for the citation normalization relative to the expected citation rate of: 5.51. This indicates that, compared to works in the same discipline and in the same year of publication, it ranks as a work cited above average. (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)

This information is reinforced by other indicators of the same type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of their calculation, consistently position the work at some point among the top 50% most cited in its field:

  • Field Citation Ratio (FCR) from Dimensions: 29.86 (source consulted: Dimensions Jul 2025)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2025-07-10, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 71
  • Europe PMC: 65

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-07-10:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 125.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 129 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 40.2.
  • The number of mentions on the social network Facebook: 2 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 51 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions in news outlets: 1 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.