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Grant support

We acknowledge support from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the 'Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019 2023' Program (CEX2018 000806S), and support from the Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program. Partial funding support for X.R. was received from the ISCIII COVID-19 project COV20/0014, from a project by the Fundacio Daniel Bravo Andreu and from the HELICAL H2020 EU Programme under the Marie Skodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 813545. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Analysis of institutional authors

Rodo Lopez, XavierAuthorLopez, Leonardo RafaelAuthor

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March 18, 2021
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The end of social confinement and COVID-19 re-emergence risk

Publicated to:Nature Human Behaviour. 4 (7): 746-755 - 2020-07-01 4(7), DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8

Authors: López, L; Rodó, X

Affiliations

Barcelona Inst Global Hlth, Climate & Hlth Program, Barcelona, Spain - Author
ICREA, Barcelona, Spain - Author

Abstract

The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people's increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns. Lopez and Rodo explore post-lockdown scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR model, showing that lockdowns should last at least 60 days to avoid a second wave of infection. Social distancing, increasing awareness and personal protective behaviours could replace lockdowns.

Keywords

ArgentinaBetacoronavirusCoronavirus infectionCoronavirus infectionsEpidemiologyHealth behaviorHumanHumansIndonesiaJapanMaskMasksModels, statisticalNew zealandPandemicPandemicsPneumonia, viralPublic policyQuarantineRiskSocial behaviorSpainStatistical modelUnited statesVirus pneumonia

Quality index

Bibliometric impact. Analysis of the contribution and dissemination channel

The work has been published in the journal Nature Human Behaviour due to its progression and the good impact it has achieved in recent years, according to the agency WoS (JCR), it has become a reference in its field. In the year of publication of the work, 2020, it was in position 2/91, thus managing to position itself as a Q1 (Primer Cuartil), in the category Psychology, Experimental. Notably, the journal is positioned above the 90th percentile.

This publication has been distinguished as a “Highly Cited Paper” by the agencies WoS (ESI, Clarivate) and ESI (Clarivate), meaning that it ranks within the top 1% of the most cited articles in its thematic field during the year of its publication. In terms of the observed impact of the contribution, this work is considered one of the most influential worldwide, as it is recognized as highly cited. (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)

And this is evidenced by the extremely high normalized impacts through some of the main indicators of this type, which, although dynamic over time and dependent on the set of average global citations at the time of calculation, already indicate that they are well above the average in different agencies:

  • Normalization of citations relative to the expected citation rate (ESI) by the Clarivate agency: 7.11 (source consulted: ESI Nov 14, 2024)
  • Weighted Average of Normalized Impact by the Scopus agency: 7.85 (source consulted: FECYT Feb 2024)

Specifically, and according to different indexing agencies, this work has accumulated citations as of 2025-07-09, the following number of citations:

  • WoS: 150
  • Scopus: 168
  • Europe PMC: 116

Impact and social visibility

From the perspective of influence or social adoption, and based on metrics associated with mentions and interactions provided by agencies specializing in calculating the so-called "Alternative or Social Metrics," we can highlight as of 2025-07-09:

  • The use, from an academic perspective evidenced by the Altmetric agency indicator referring to aggregations made by the personal bibliographic manager Mendeley, gives us a total of: 343.
  • The use of this contribution in bookmarks, code forks, additions to favorite lists for recurrent reading, as well as general views, indicates that someone is using the publication as a basis for their current work. This may be a notable indicator of future more formal and academic citations. This claim is supported by the result of the "Capture" indicator, which yields a total of: 347 (PlumX).

With a more dissemination-oriented intent and targeting more general audiences, we can observe other more global scores such as:

  • The Total Score from Altmetric: 785.15.
  • The number of mentions on the social network Facebook: 3 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions on the social network X (formerly Twitter): 394 (Altmetric).
  • The number of mentions in news outlets: 60 (Altmetric).

It is essential to present evidence supporting full alignment with institutional principles and guidelines on Open Science and the Conservation and Dissemination of Intellectual Heritage. A clear example of this is:

  • The work has been submitted to a journal whose editorial policy allows open Open Access publication.